5G in Africa: How 53 Operators and 54 Million Connections are Building Digital Sovereignty

Zellow Analysis: Africa's 5G deployment has reached a critical juncture where technology adoption meets governance challenges that could determine the continent's digital sovereignty for decades. As of September 2025, 53 operators across 29 markets have launched commercial 5G services, yet only 54 million connections exist, representing just 3.8% of mobile users. While projections show 380 million 5G connections by 2030, driven by sub-$100 smartphones and expanded spectrum allocation, Africa faces a governance crisis at AFRINIC, the continent's only Regional Internet Registry, where over 50 lawsuits filed primarily by Chinese-owned Cloud Innovation Ltd. threaten institutional paralysis and potential liquidation. Simultaneously, outdated spectrum frameworks mean fewer than 15% of nations have initiated 2G shutdowns and under 10% have started 3G closures, limiting frequency reallocation for 5G networks. With global telecom capital expenditure projected to exceed $1.1 trillion between 2025-2030, and average data consumption surging from 5.3 GB to 15.6 GB per connection monthly since 2019, understanding how spectrum management, infrastructure investment, and institutional governance intersect is essential for evaluating Africa's telecommunications transformation and digital sovereignty trajectory.

What Is 5G and Why Does Africa's Rollout Matter Globally?

5G, or fifth-generation wireless technology, provides dramatically faster data speeds, lower latency, and the capacity to connect millions of devices simultaneously. In Africa, where mobile connectivity leapfrogged fixed broadband to become primary internet access, 5G represents more than an incremental improvement. It's foundational infrastructure for digital economies, smart cities, and industrial automation.

5G Adoption Statistics Africa: The Current Reality

As of September 2025, 53 operators in 29 markets had launched commercial 5G services, demonstrating that African telecommunications companies are moving aggressively despite infrastructure and regulatory challenges. However, adoption numbers reveal the deployment remains nascent.

Only 54 million 5G connections exist by the end of 2025, accounting for just 3.8% of all mobile users across the continent. This low penetration reflects multiple constraints: limited 5G device availability at affordable price points, spectrum allocation delays, and 4G networks still meeting most current user needs.

By 2030, 5G uptake is expected to reach approximately 380 million connections, representing a seven-fold increase driven by availability of sub-$100 5G smartphones and expanded spectrum allocations, particularly in North Africa where regulatory frameworks are advancing faster than Sub-Saharan markets.

Fixed Wireless Access: The Early Monetisation Strategy

Early monetisation initiatives, such as Fixed Wireless Access, have been implemented by 25 operators targeting premium households with a monthly ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) of $24-$32. FWA uses 5G networks to provide home internet service, competing with fixed broadband where fibre deployment is economically unviable.

Why FWA matters strategically: In markets where laying fiber to homes costs $500-$1,500 per connection, FWA, using existing cell towers, can provide comparable speeds at $50-$150 per connection infrastructure cost. For African operators, FWA offers revenue from premium customers while building a case for 5G network investment before mass-market mobile 5G adoption occurs.

Complementary programs, including Qualcomm's "Make in Africa" initiative and Orange's 5G Labs, illustrate efforts to deliver locally tailored solutions for both enterprise and consumer markets, demonstrating that technology deployment increasingly involves African capacity-building rather than pure technology transfer from developed markets.

The Spectrum Crisis Blocking Africa's 5G Future

Central to Africa's 5G deployment is effective spectrum management, which ensures broad coverage, network capacity, and support for emerging applications like VoLTE/VoNR and Internet of Things connectivity. Yet, spectrum allocation has become the primary bottleneck limiting Africa's 5G trajectory.

Spectrum Allocation Progress and Persistent Delays

Countries including Egypt, Tunisia, Senegal, Namibia, and Comoros have made incremental allocations in the 700 MHz, 800 MHz, and 3.5 GHz bands critical for 5G deployment. These frequencies balance coverage range (lower frequencies travel farther) with capacity (higher frequencies carry more data).

But progress remains insufficient. Outdated legal frameworks, delayed auctions, high license fees, and fragmented spectrum management slow deployment across most African markets. When spectrum auctions get delayed by years due to regulatory uncertainty or political considerations, operators cannot justify infrastructure investment, creating vicious cycles where a lack of spectrum prevents network buildout, which prevents demonstration of 5G value, which delays spectrum allocation.

The Legacy Network Problem Nobody's Solving

Legacy networks remain prevalent, with fewer than 15% of nations initiating 2G shutdowns and fewer than 10% starting 3G closures. This matters because operators need to reclaim the spectrum currently allocated to 2G and 3G networks to repurpose those frequencies for 4G and 5G services.

The economic trap: Operators cannot simply shut down 2G/3G networks while customers still use those technologies. But maintaining multiple network generations simultaneously increases operational costs and reduces spectrum efficiency. Coordinated migration requires government policy enabling technology transitions while ensuring universal service obligations are met.

Regional Coordination Initiatives

Regional initiatives, such as ITU's RRS-23-Africa, and national frameworks, such as South Africa's draft Radio Frequency Migration Plan, emphasise the importance of coordinated policy and regulatory harmonisation. Without alignment, operators face barriers to cross-border deployment, while spectrum scarcity threatens the scalability and efficiency of 5G networks.

Coordinated action by the African Telecommunications Union in partnership with the ITU promotes spectrum harmonization, reduced equipment costs through standardization, and regional interoperability, enabling cross-border services. Tools such as technology-neutral licensing, dynamic spectrum access, and spectrum-sharing mechanisms optimise frequency use while extending connectivity to underserved regions.

Africa's Data Explosion: 15.6 GB Monthly And Growing

Africa's demand for mobile data continues surging in ways that stress existing infrastructure and justify 5G investment despite current low adoption.

Mobile Data Consumption Growth Rates in Africa

Average data consumption per connection per month reached 15.6 GB in 2024, up from 5.3 GB in 2019, representing nearly 300% growth in five years. This explosive growth is driven primarily by short-form video platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels, plus increasing video quality on social media and streaming services.

What 15.6 GB monthly means operationally: That's roughly 30 hours of HD video streaming or 500 hours of audio streaming per user per month. When millions of users simultaneously consume video during evening peak hours, network congestion becomes severe on 3G/4G networks not designed for such traffic patterns.

Network Technology Distribution

While 4G and 3G technologies remain dominant, accounting for 46% and 37% of total connections at the end of 2024, operators are investing heavily to support the transition to 5G. The persistence of 3G, representing 37% of connections, demonstrates the multi-year technology transition timelines in African markets.

Global capital expenditure for network upgrades has exceeded $1 trillion over the past five years, with projections surpassing $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2030, reflecting ongoing investments in network expansion and capacity enhancement. This represents one of the largest infrastructure investment programs globally, comparable to road and power grid investments.

Meeting this growing demand requires not only additional spectrum and infrastructure but also careful management of network resources to support advanced services such as VoLTE/VoNR, IoT, and immersive media applications. Failing to address these pressures could hinder Africa's ability to harness the full potential of next-generation networks and risk digital economy development falling behind global competition.

AFRINIC Crisis: When Governance Threatens Digital Sovereignty

Digital sovereignty depends on the integrity of organizations managing critical internet resources. The governance crisis at AFRINIC, Africa's only Regional Internet Registry, exposed vulnerabilities in IP address allocation and broader internet infrastructure that most policymakers didn't realise existed until the crisis emerged.

What is AFRINIC and Why It Matters

Regional Internet Registries allocate IP addresses within their regions. AFRINIC manages IP address distribution across Africa, ensuring that African networks, websites, and services have the unique identifiers necessary to function on the global internet.

Since 2022, AFRINIC has faced institutional paralysis, compounded by more than 50 lawsuits filed primarily by Cloud Innovation Ltd., a Chinese-owned company registered in Seychelles. These lawsuits challenge AFRINIC's decisions regarding IP address allocation and have created legal costs and governance uncertainty that threaten the organization's viability.

The June 2025 Election Disaster

The June 2025 elections, initially seen as a reset opportunity to restore governance, were annulled due to procedural irregularities, including unauthorized proxy voting and breaches in membership safeguards. These events underscored the urgent need for transparent election processes, strict adherence to bylaws, and robust oversight to protect Africa's digital sovereignty.

Attempts to restore normal operations, including the appointment of a Court Receiver in 2023, have yet to resolve governance issues fully. The potential liquidation of AFRINIC threatens the continent's control over its IP resource management, highlighting the strategic importance of governance in safeguarding digital infrastructure.

What liquidation would mean: If AFRINIC is liquidated, IP address management for Africa could be absorbed by other Regional Internet Registries or ICANN directly, meaning African countries lose institutional control over this critical resource and the policy autonomy to manage IP addresses according to African needs and priorities.

Smart Africa's Coordinated Response

In response, Smart Africa, together with the African Union Commission, ITU, ICANN, and member states, has undertaken coordinated actions to protect AFRINIC and ensure continuity of internet governance. These include diplomatic outreach, establishment of legal advisory committees, high-level ministerial meetings, and engagement with the Mauritian government (where AFRINIC is headquartered) to avert liquidation.

This cooperative approach safeguards the continent's critical internet infrastructure while establishing frameworks for addressing future threats to digital sovereignty. The AFRINIC crisis demonstrates that digital sovereignty requires not just infrastructure investment but also institutional resilience and governance capacity.

Zellow Strategic Framework: The Three Pillars Of African Digital Sovereignty

Understanding Africa's path to digital sovereignty requires recognising three interdependent pillars that must develop simultaneously rather than sequentially.

Pillar One: Infrastructure Investment and Deployment

The $1.1 trillion projected capital expenditure between 2025-2030 represents foundational investment in physical networks. This includes cell towers, fibre backhaul, data centres, and spectrum acquisition. Without infrastructure, digital services cannot exist, regardless of governance quality or policy sophistication.

Investment characteristics: Long payback periods (7-15 years), high capital intensity, regulatory dependency, and competitive dynamics where multiple operators often duplicate infrastructure. Success requires patient capital, stable regulatory environments, and coordination to avoid wasteful duplication.

Pillar Two: Spectrum Management and Policy Frameworks

The 700 MHz and 800 MHz "digital dividend" from the broadcast television transition to digital represents critical spectrum that can be reallocated for mobile broadband. Policy decisions about spectrum allocation, pricing, and migration timelines directly determine 5G deployment speed and economics.

Policy imperatives: Technology-neutral licensing allowing operators to deploy optimal technologies, dynamic spectrum access enabling shared use of underutilized frequencies, coordinated 2G/3G shutdown timelines enabling spectrum refarming, and harmonization across countries enabling economies of scale in equipment procurement and cross-border services.

Pillar Three: Institutional Governance and Internet Resources

The AFRINIC crisis demonstrates that digital sovereignty requires African-controlled institutions managing critical internet resources with transparent governance, legal resilience, and technical competence. Losing institutional control means losing policy autonomy over how digital infrastructure serves African priorities.

Governance requirements: Transparent election processes preventing capture by special interests, robust legal frameworks protecting institutions from lawsuits designed to paralyze operations, regional coordination through organizations like Smart Africa and the African Union, and capacity development ensuring African technical expertise in internet governance.

Zellow Observations: Why Digital Sovereignty is About Power, Not Just Technology

The 3.8% Paradox: Only 54 million 5G connections exist despite 53 operators launching services, which reveals that supply-side technology deployment doesn't automatically create demand-side adoption. The sub-$100 smartphone availability by 2030 will matter more than network deployment for mass adoption, suggesting device manufacturers hold as much power over 5G trajectories as telecom operators.

The Chinese Strategic Play: Cloud Innovation Ltd., the Chinese-owned company filing 50+ lawsuits against AFRINIC, represents a case study in how external actors can threaten African digital sovereignty through legal rather than military or economic means. The sophistication of using Seychelles registration to gain AFRINIC membership, then deploying lawsuits to paralyse governance, demonstrates vulnerabilities in African institutional frameworks designed for good-faith participation.

The Spectrum Opportunity Cost: Every year that spectrum remains allocated to 2G/3G networks serving declining user bases is a year that spectrum cannot support 5G services generating higher ARPU and enabling new applications. The economic opportunity cost of delayed spectrum refarming likely exceeds billions of dollars annually across the continent, yet political risks of angry 2G users prevent decisive action in most markets.

The Infrastructure Investment Mismatch: $1.1 trillion global telecom capex projected through 2030, yet African markets represent small fractions of this investment despite having largest unconnected populations and fastest data growth. This investment mismatch reflects risk perceptions and return expectations that policy reforms could address but currently don't.

The Path Forward: Strategic Imperatives for African Digital Sovereignty

Africa's long-term digital sovereignty relies on human capacity development, spectrum management, and strategic policymaking that treats telecommunications as critical infrastructure comparable to ports, roads, and power grids.

Key policy priorities include: Regional spectrum harmonization through ATU and ITU frameworks reducing fragmentation, technology-neutral licensing enabling operators to deploy optimal solutions, dynamic spectrum access and sharing mechanisms improving frequency efficiency, coordinated 2G/3G shutdown timelines with social safety nets for affected users, and ongoing AFRINIC oversight ensuring institutional resilience against external threats.

The 380 million connection target by 2030 is achievable if spectrum allocation accelerates, device prices reach affordability thresholds, and use cases emerge justifying 5G premium pricing. But achieving this requires policy reforms, infrastructure investment, and institutional governance working in concert rather than each pillar developing independently.

By integrating operational, technological, and regulatory strategies, African nations can foster resilient, self-reliant, and internationally competitive digital ecosystems, ensuring that the continent is prepared to harness opportunities of 5G and beyond while maintaining sovereignty over critical digital infrastructure and governance institutions that will define economic competitiveness for decades.